Doubts on spur health Chavez speak of the successor (AP)

CARACAS, Venezuela — Hugo Chavez that speculation might be suffering from a serious illness is putting the focus on a difficult situation for the allies of the President: it is not clear who might step forward if he had to resign.

Venezuelans few speak publicly about Chavez leave office, partly because of high government officials and close relatives have repeatedly said that the President is recuperating in Cuba after surgery there two weeks ago.

Again, silence and solitude after Chavez have stimulated increasing mention of his health, stirring fears among some supporters that their leaders might be seriously ill.

Speculation has led some to think about what would happen if ill health to force Chavez to abandon power. Until recently, contemplating even this possibility would have been considered absurd.

Under the Constitution of Venezuela, Vice President Elias Jaua would take the place of the President during absences "temporary" up to 90 days. Jaua and would serve the remainder of the term of six years of Chavez if the President were preaching socialism-die or resign.

With presidential elections looming next year, such a scenario could put the Jaua and other leaders of the dominant party in a difficult position.

None of the confidants close to Chavez share his charisma and talent for connecting with the poor majority of Venezuela. That area has ultimately decided the election in this politically divided the South American country.

Steve Ellner, a Professor of political science at the University of the East, Venezuela believes that the future of Chavez's political movement would largely depend on whether poor health prevented Chavez designating a successor.

"There is no second-in-command in Chavez," said Ellner. "If it is unable to approve anyone Chavez, there inevitably will be dissent".

Ellner said that the situation would be very different if Chavez threw its support behind a would-be successor.

"There is a great sense of loyalty within the movement of Chavez," he said. "If Chavez himself is able to perform for physical reasons, but supports a certain candidate, the movement will not collapse."

While there are no obvious candidates, some observers believe that the President might touch Jaua or Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela's Energy Minister.

Diosdado Cabello, a former army officer who joined in a 1992 coup led by Chavez, once was perceived as Chavez's closest confidant. But standing of Cabello seems to have faded, because he lost a bid for re-election in 2008 as the Governor of the State of Miranda, a leader of the opposition.

Venezuelan officials have limited their comments about the health of Chavez in saying that it was recovering, but provided few details.

Jaua told an auditorium packed with supporters of the Government Saturday that Chavez "is recovering to continue the battle."

He condemned the opponents of Chavez for speculating on the health of the President, accusing them of using the President's surgery to score political points before the next presidential election.

"I know that you can beat our Commander, Hugo Chavez, in an election," he said, adding: "Chavez is going to be around for a long time".

Meanwhile, the Twitter stream of Chavez was active and does not provide any information on his health. A message on Friday hailed Venezuela's military in holiday marking a decisive battle of independence. Three messages appear within 30 minutes, Saturday afternoon, including one mentioning Chavez visits Rosines daughter and grandchildren.

"Ah, that happiness is to receive this shower of love!" read the message to Twitter. "God bless them!"

No one has heard speak publicly because Chavez said the Venezuelan State television by telephone on 12 June that he was quickly recovering from surgery two days earlier for a pelvic abscess. Medical tests showed no signs of any disease "malicious," he said.

It is unclear when he will return to Venezuela.

Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro urged Venezuelans on Friday to wish to complete the recovery of Chavez and express their "truest love so that his health is restored."

"The battle that President Chavez is leading to his health must be the battle of all: the battle for life, for the immediate future of our motherland," Maduro said.

Miguel Tinker Salas, a Professor of Latin American studies at Pomona College in Claremont, California, said he thinks some people "are jumping the gun" which expresses doubts about the health of Chavez and raising questions about a potential successor.

"I imagine that Chavez is enjoying this why people seem so concerned about his health," said Tinker Salas. "I can imagine him joke about all speculation in front of a crowd of supporters" sometime in the near future.

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Associated Press writer Christopher Toothaker contributed to this report.

(This version corrects that Jaua spoke Saturday, not Sunday).

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